To prepare for this, it is essential to understand the Futures Cone, outlining five types of future.

There is no such thing as “the future.”

It all depends on what we mean, how far we look ahead and on whether we are trying to predict or create the future.

One of the most helpful tools to understand this is Hancock and Bezolt’s (1994)

They are

PROJECTED FUTURE
The future we tend to get when we simply stick to business as usual and extrapolate the current baseline strategy. It’s more of the same and contains the least uncertainty.

PROBABLE FUTURE
The future that most likely is going to happen, taking into account trends and developments within and outside the organization. It’s a bit more uncertain, but still quite predictable.

PLAUSIBLE FUTURE
The future that could happen according to our current knowledge. This is broader than just the probable future and includes futures that we could foresee rather than just expect.

POSSIBLE FUTURE
The broadest type of future, including everything that might happen. This is the realm of our imagination and extends beyond our current knowledge, tools and technologies.

PREFERABLE FUTURE
The future that we want to happen. This is different from the four above as it reflects our desires, preferences and intentions rather than what we cognitively can anticipate.

As the image illustrates, the Preferable Future often deviates from the Projected Future (business as usual) or Probable Future (following the trends). This means it requires active imagination and bringing in our desires and intentions to imagine a future that is different.

At the same time, it also shows that the Preferable Future should mostly reside within the boundaries of the Plausible Future with perhaps a touch of the Possible Future. Otherwise the gap between where you are today and how you want your future to look is too big.

This is where the distinction is made between organizations that make smaller, incremental changes, and those that create breakthrough innovations.

The further you can stretch your Preferred Future away from the Projected Future towards the Plausible and Possible Futures, the more visionary you need to be, and the more you will be an industry leader.

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Here’s the question for you:   

where is your Preferred Future targeted—more of the same

(Projected or Probable)

or

at creating something new (Plausible and Possible)?

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