STAGFLATION ISN’T THEORY ANYMORE — IT’S BACKED BY DATA.
According to MUFG’s latest Commodities Weekly (17 April 2025),

the global macro landscape is being redrawn by tariffs, trade wars, and commodity shocks.

Here’s what markets are telling us:
• Gold surges to $3,343/oz, +41% YTD — set to reach $3,850 by year-end
• Copper up 6.9% last week, as US producers seek export bans over tariffs
• Sugar hits lowest levels in 2+ years, down on Brazil/India supply glut
• Oil remains range-bound ($65.85 Brent), amid recession fears and OPEC+ flex
• EU natural gas rises 4.9% w/w — storage still just 35% full for winter
• Carbon prices whipsaw as Trump challenges state climate laws
Historical data shows that commodities outperform in high-inflation regimes, offering portfolio diversification and inflation resilience.

MUFG’s strategy:
Bearish Oil | Guarded Copper | Bullish Gold
Numbers matter. Positioning matters more.

Commodities Investing Inflation Macro PortfolioStrategy Tariffs Gold Copper Oil NaturalGas EnergyMarkets CarbonMarkets Trump2025 ESG LNG OPEC Stagflation GlobalTrade Economics RiskManagement

View Kenneth Bergstroem-Andersen’s graphic link

Brace for Impact. Stagflation looms in the U.S, rising the probability for stagflation in 2026 to an estimated 22–30%.
This scenario—marked by stagnant economic growth, elevated inflation, and higher borrowing costs—is increasingly attributed to policy decisions and behaviors of the Trump administration.​

Policy missteps, such as aggressive tariff implementations, directly drive economic outcomes by disrupting supply chains and increasing consumer prices. 
Concurrently, leadership behaviors that undermine institutional independence and global cooperation indirectly erode investor confidence, potentially leading to adverse effects like reduced tourism, de-dollarisation, and
de-americanisation and a shift away from American economic dominance.​
When the likelihood and consequences jointly reach a certain level – it becomes time to develop mitigation plans.
(Calculations and consequences based on my assumptions as of April 2025)