ED COHEN

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EXPANDED COVERAGE ’26 ON CRITICAL ISSUES FACING US C-SUITES 

This chart ranks critical minerals by estimated GDP loss from trade disruptions.

All U.S. Critical Minerals, Ranked by Supply Disruption Risk

 

Key Takeaways

  • A trade disruption of rhodium from South Africa could cost the U.S. over $64 billion in GDP.
  • China is the leading source of 46 of the 84 critical minerals examined by the USGS.

The U.S. relies heavily on imports for dozens of critical minerals used in everything from clean energy to defense. But what happens if those trade flows are disrupted?

This visualization ranks the most economically important critical minerals to the U.S. in 2025, based on potential GDP loss from foreign trade disruptions. The data comes from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and includes 84 critical commodities.

Rhodium Tops the Risk List

A disruption in the supply of rhodium—primarily from South Africa—could slash over $64 billion from U.S. GDP in a single year. That’s more than six times the estimated impact of the next highest-risk mineral, niobium, which is mostly sourced from Brazil. Both materials are key to automotive and aerospace industries.

Rare Earths Carry Broad Economic Exposure

Rare earth elements like samarium, terbium, and dysprosium rank high on the list. These are critical for magnets, motors, and high-tech applications like EVs and wind turbines. China dominates global supply of rare earths, accounting for over 69% of production. This dominance extends beyond mining, with China also processing nearly 90% of the world’s rare earth elements.

The USGS found that China contributes to the GDP risk of 46 of the 84 minerals studied.

Battery Metals and Beyond

Lithium, cobalt, and synthetic graphite—all crucial for battery production—appear lower in absolute dollar terms, but are still vital to long-term energy security. Magnesium, gallium, and germanium also raise red flags due to limited suppliers and essential applications in electronics, defense, and clean tech.

This visualization tracks rare earth production by country from 1994 to 2024.

Bar chart showing top producers of critical minerals in 2025

Next-generation battery capacity by country in 2025, including solid-state, sodium-ion, and redox-flow technologies.

Five countries produce 71% of global nuclear power.

This voronoi graphic breaks down the top destinations for U.S. coal exports last year.

Mapped: U.S. oil production by state in 2024, led by Texas and New Mexico with a combined output of 7.7 million barrels/day.

Voronoi graphic showing the top buyers of U.S. oil.

Pie chart showing the global energy mix in 2024.

This graphic shows current and projected energy demand from data centers in the United States (2023-2030).

As the digital economy accelerates and generative AI becomes more deeply embedded in business and daily life, the physical infrastructure supporting these technologies is undergoing a transformative explosion.

In this graphic, we use data from McKinsey to show current and projected energy demand from data centers in the United States. Data is from October 2023.

U.S. Data Centers Could Quadruple Power Demand by 2030

Today, data centers account for roughly 4% of total U.S. electricity consumption. But by 2030, that share is projected to rise to 12%, driven by unprecedented growth in computing power, storage needs, and AI model training.

In fact, U.S. data center energy demand is set to jump from 224 terawatt-hours in 2025 to 606 terawatt-hours in 2030.

Year Consumption (TWh) % of Total Power Demand
2023 147 4%
2024 178 4%
2025 224 5%
2026 292 7%
2027 371 8%
2028 450 9%
2029 513 10%
2030 606 12%

Meeting this projected demand could require $500 billion in new data center infrastructure, along with a vast expansion of electricity generation, grid capacity, and water-cooling systems. Generative AI alone could require 50–60 GW of additional infrastructure.

This massive investment would also depend on upgrades in permitting, land use, and supply chain logistics. For example, the lead time to power new data centers in large markets such as Northern Virginia can exceed three years. In some cases, lead times for electrical equipment are two years or more.

A Strain on the U.S. Grid

The U.S. has experienced relatively flat power demand since 2007. Models suggest that this stability could be disrupted in the coming years. Data center growth alone could account for 30–40% of all net-new electricity demand through 2030.

Unlike typical power loads, data center demand is constant, dense, and growing exponentially. Facilities often operate 24/7, with little downtime and minimal flexibility to reduce usage.

Conversation with Gemini (11/20/25 10am Pacific)

Hello Gemini. Please identify the largest US DEFENSE CONTRACTORS. Thank you.

Based on contract revenue and obligations, the largest U.S. defense contractors typically include:

  • Lockheed Martin: Consistently the largest defense contractor, specializing in advanced military capabilities like aircraft (e.g., F-35 fighter jet), missiles, and cybersecurity.

  • RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies): A major player known for its missile defense systems, advanced sensors, and integrated defense solutions.

  • General Dynamics: Diverse portfolio including combat vehicles, shipbuilding (submarines for the U.S. Navy), and IT services.

  • Boeing: A dominant force in military aviation, involved in projects like the KC-46A Pegasus tanker and various satellite technologies.

  • Northrop Grumman: Specializes in aerospace and defense innovation, known for its contributions to space systems and programs like the B-21 Raider stealth bomber.

These “Big Five” companies often receive the majority of the U.S. Department of Defense’s contract obligations each fiscal year. Other significant contractors include L3Harris Technologies, Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), and Leidos.

Would you like to know more about the specific products or services these companies provide?

Yes please. Are VISUAL charts/graphics available to me?

That’s a great request! While I can’t directly display a visual chart here in the chat, I can provide you with a detailed, ranked list of the largest U.S. defense contractors by their value of U.S. Government Defense Contracts for 2023, which is the data most commonly represented in those types of graphics.

This ranking clearly shows the dominance of the “Big Five”:

Rank Company Value of U.S. Government Defense Contracts (2023) Key Focus Areas
1 Lockheed Martin $61.4 Billion F-35 fighter jets, precision-strike rockets, nuclear spacecraft
2 RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies) $24.1 Billion Missile systems, advanced sensors, commercial aviation
3 General Dynamics $22.9 Billion IT systems, combat vehicles, marine systems (submarines)
4 Boeing $20.1 Billion Military aviation (F-15EX, KC-46A), satellite systems
5 Northrop Grumman $16.3 Billion B-21 Raider stealth bomber, space systems, missile defense

The data above shows that Lockheed Martin holds a contract value more than double that of the next-ranked company, highlighting why they are consistently viewed as the largest overall defense contractor.   

You can often find current and historical rankings and visual charts by searching online sources like Visual Capitalist or financial news sites that cover the aerospace and defense industry.

Would you like to explore the products of a specific company on this list, or perhaps see which companies follow the top five?

Yes please. Thank you.

That’s a great request! I can certainly provide you with an overview of the key products and focus areas for each of the “Big Five” U.S. defense contractors.

🇺🇸 The Top 5 U.S. Defense Contractors: Key Products

Company Primary Focus & Signature Programs Key Products/Capabilities
1. Lockheed Martin Fighter Jets, Missiles, & Space Systems (The world’s largest defense contractor, focusing on advanced technology and stealth.) * Aircraft: F-35 Lightning II (Joint Strike Fighter), F-16 Fighting Falcon, C-130 Hercules transport aircraft.
* Missiles/Fire Control: Javelin Weapon System, HELLFIRE missile, HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), and the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM).
* Other: Aegis Combat System, Sikorsky helicopters (e.g., BLACK HAWK), and the Orion Spacecraft for NASA’s Artemis program.
2. RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies) Missile Defense, Sensors, & Aerospace Components (Known for its vast portfolio of air and missile defense systems and commercial aerospace.) * Missiles/Defense: Patriot air and missile defense system, AMRAAM and AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles, and NASAMS.
* Radars & Sensors: SPY-6 radar family, GhostEye Radar, and advanced integrated defense sensors.
* Aerospace (Commercial/Military): Pratt & Whitney aircraft engines and Collins Aerospace avionics and aerostructures.
3. General Dynamics Land Combat, Naval Shipbuilding, & IT Services (A highly diversified company across land, sea, and information.) * Combat Vehicles: Abrams main battle tank, Stryker family of combat vehicles, and LAVs.
* Marine Systems: Building nuclear-powered submarines (like the Virginia-class) for the U.S. Navy and combat/auxiliary ships.
* IT & Technology: Large provider of IT solutions, cloud computing, and cybersecurity services to government agencies (through GDIT).
4. Boeing Military Aircraft & Space Platforms (A leading manufacturer of military aircraft, rotorcraft, and integrated defense systems.) * Military Aircraft: F-15EX Eagle II fighter, F/A-18 Super Hornet, AH-64 Apache attack helicopter, and CH-47 Chinook helicopter.
* Mobility & Surveillance: KC-46 Pegasus aerial refueler, P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, and the E-7 Wedgetail.
* Space: Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system and contributions to the International Space Station (ISS).
5. Northrop Grumman Stealth Bombers, Space Systems, & Advanced Radar/Sensors (A leader in strategic deterrence and high-end space and electronic systems.) * Aircraft: B-21 Raider strategic stealth bomber, B-2 Spirit bomber, and the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye surveillance aircraft.
* Space: The LGM-35 Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program and launch/space vehicle construction (e.g., Cygnus spacecraft).
* Systems: AN/APG-81 AESA radar (used in the F-35), and the Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS).

These companies represent the core industrial base for high-value U.S. defense systems.

Would you like to dive deeper into any of these specific products or talk about the smaller contractors?

Yes please identify the smaller contractors.

That’s an excellent question, as the defense industry includes a wide range of companies beyond the “Big Five” that specialize in crucial areas like technology, IT services, and specific military platforms.

The largest of the contractors outside of the top tier are often called mid-tier or tier-one subcontractors. Based on 2023 U.S. government defense contract obligations, the most prominent of these “smaller” (but still massive) players are:

⚙️ Key Mid-Tier U.S. Defense Contractors

Company 2023 Contract Obligations (Approx.) Primary Focus & Signature Programs
L3Harris Technologies $7.9 Billion Communications & Intelligence: Specializes in advanced tactical radios, secure communication systems, night vision equipment, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms. They are a major provider of avionics and electronic systems and recently acquired Aerojet Rocketdyne, a rocket motor producer.
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) $10.3 Billion Shipbuilding: The largest military shipbuilder in the U.S. Key programs include being the sole designer, builder, and refueler of U.S. Navy aircraft carriers (Ford-class) and a major provider of Virginia-class attack submarines.
Leidos $10.8 Billion IT, Cybersecurity, & Science: Focuses heavily on defense, intelligence, and health technology. They provide innovative solutions for defense systems, cybersecurity, and large-scale information technology integration.
Booz Allen Hamilton $7.5 Billion Consulting & Analytics: A leading provider of technology and consulting services to the Department of Defense (DoD). Their work involves advanced analytics, digital modernization, and engineering services.
Amentum $4.4 Billion Support & Maintenance: Specializes in government and commercial services, including nuclear remediation, complex facility management, and base operations support for U.S. and allied militaries worldwide.

These companies bridge the gap between the “Big Five” platform builders (like Lockheed’s F-35) and the specialized small businesses, often providing the critical components, services, and IT infrastructure that enable the major weapon systems to function.

Would you like me to look into a specific type of capability, such as cybersecurity or shipbuilding, to see who the other major companies are in that niche?

Yes, cybersecurity and also shipbuilding.

That’s a great choice, as both cybersecurity and shipbuilding are critical, specialized areas in U.S. defense. Many of the “Big Five” are involved, but other contractors also play a major role.

Here is a breakdown of the key players in each sector:

🛡️ Cybersecurity & IT Contractors

This sector includes the “Big Five” who integrate cyber into their platforms, alongside major service and IT consulting firms that manage government networks and data.

Company Key Cybersecurity Role
Leidos A global technology solution provider specializing in cyber defense solutions, risk assessments, penetration testing, and security operations to identify vulnerabilities.
Booz Allen Hamilton A leading provider of cybersecurity consulting services for the DoD, focusing on threat intelligence, risk management, and digital modernization of defense systems.
General Dynamics Through its General Dynamics Information Technology (GDIT) segment, it delivers advanced cybersecurity services, threat intelligence, and secure network architecture for federal agencies.
Lockheed Martin Integrates robust cyber solutions into its major platforms and provides dedicated cybersecurity services and products like cross-domain solutions.
Northrop Grumman Provides specialized expertise in cyber systems as one of its six core business segments, focusing on full-spectrum cyber operations, C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance), and autonomous systems.

Other major companies in this field include Cisco and Palo Alto Networks, which provide networking hardware, firewalls, and cloud-based security features that are widely used across government and defense networks, as well as L3Harris Technologies for secure communications.

🚢 Major U.S. Shipbuilding Contractors

The U.S. military shipbuilding industry is highly concentrated, with the two largest military shipbuilders—Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) and General Dynamics—doing the vast majority of the work. However, there are other important companies:

Company Key Shipbuilding Role
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) The largest military shipbuilder in the U.S. It is the sole builder of U.S. Navy aircraft carriers (Newport News Shipbuilding) and a major builder of destroyers, amphibious ships, and Coast Guard Cutters (Ingalls Shipbuilding).
General Dynamics Owns major shipyards: Bath Iron Works (specializing in destroyers like the Arleigh Burke-class) and General Dynamics NASSCO (building auxiliary and support ships like fleet oilers and Expeditionary Sea Base ships). They also build nuclear-powered submarines (Electric Boat).
Fincantieri Marine Group A leading global shipbuilder with a significant U.S. presence. Its subsidiary, Fincantieri Marinette Marine, is a key contractor for building the U.S. Navy’s next-generation guided-missile frigates (Constellation-class).
Austal USA Based in Mobile, Alabama, this company specializes in building aluminum and steel ships, including the U.S. Navy’s Littoral Combat Ships and Expeditionary Fast Transports.
Bollinger Shipyards A prominent name in the shipbuilding and repair industry with multiple shipyards across the Gulf Coast, often contracted for Coast Guard and Navy vessel construction and repair.

Would you be interested in learning about the top contractors in a completely different area, such as space systems or advanced weapons?

Yes please space systems and also advanced weapons.

That’s a fantastic pairing, as Space Systems and Advanced Weapons are where the U.S. defense industry is currently investing heavily to maintain its technological advantage.

Here is a breakdown of the leading contractors in both of these critical areas, including major programs and capabilities:

🚀 Space Systems Contractors

This sector is dominated by the “Big Five” alongside key emerging players who are revolutionizing satellite development and launch services.

Company Key Space Focus & Programs
Lockheed Martin A core architect for national security space programs, building advanced satellites for intelligence, missile warning, and GPS. They are also a major partner on NASA’s deep space missions, including the Orion Spacecraft.
Northrop Grumman Specializes in end-to-end space systems, including launch vehicles (like the Antares rocket), satellite manufacturing, and is the lead developer of the James Webb Space Telescope.
Boeing Integrates defense, space, and security solutions. Key programs include the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system and their work with NASA on the International Space Station (ISS) and space-based satellites.
RTX Contributes essential components, sensors, and payloads for space systems, focusing on missile warning and tracking, as well as high-capacity space-based communications.
SpaceX A disruptive new-era contractor focused on reusable rocket technology (Falcon family) for cost-effective launches and deploying the large Starlink constellation for global internet and military connectivity.
L3Harris Technologies Provides specialized systems like optical communication terminals, advanced payloads, and sensors for reconnaissance and missile warning satellites.

💥 Advanced Weapons Contractors

This includes everything from precision-guided munitions and missiles to the next generation of hypersonic weapons and autonomous systems.

Company Key Advanced Weapons Focus & Programs
Lockheed Martin The largest supplier of missiles and precision-guided systems. They are a leader in hypersonic weapons development, and produce the HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) and the Javelin anti-tank missile.
RTX Highly specialized in missile defense. Key products include the Patriot missile system, AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, and the NASAMS air defense system.
Northrop Grumman Focuses on strategic deterrence, including the new B-21 Raider stealth bomber and the modernization of the U.S. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) program, the LGM-35 Sentinel.
General Dynamics While known for vehicles and ships, their Combat Systems division manufactures weaponry and ammunition, including the Abrams tank and various artillery systems.
Anduril Industries A newer, high-profile contractor focused on developing autonomous defense systems powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI), such as the Roadrunner autonomous air vehicle and various counter-drone systems.

Is there a specific program or technology from any of these categories you’d like to delve into further?

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